The Prophecy Club News Update

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Iran v Saudis in battle of Beirut

Having looked on helplessly, or unhelpfully, during Israel's destabilising summer bombardment of Lebanon, Britain and other European countries are now scrabbling to shore up Fouad Siniora's shaky pro-western government. The foreign secretary, Margaret Beckett, and her German counterpart were in Beirut at the weekend. Messages of solidarity have come from France and Italy. Even Israel is warning of dire consequences should Mr Siniora fall.

All agree that this week's Hizbullah-organised, largely Shia Muslim demonstrations, although broadly peaceful and "democratic" so far, must not be allowed to topple the government. Their attitude contrasts awkwardly with the approving western view of last year's anti-Syrian street protests by Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze, whimsically dubbed the "cedar revolution", which ousted Lebanon's then prime minister, Omar Karami.

A Hizbullah political success would plainly complement the group's self-proclaimed military successes of August. And like Israel, the US and Britain see the potential "loss" of Lebanon as a direct gain not only for Syria and its favourite militia, but more worryingly, for Iran. This places the battle for Beirut squarely in the wider context of a regional power struggle with an increasingly confident Tehran.